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Release 40Latest

Exit plans acted on mid-session, and a nightly luck-or-skill reading

The Portfolio Manager now acts on the exit plan it wrote when it opened a position, and the Performance page says each night how much of the book's result could still be luck.

What changed for people using Bellwether

  • Exit plans are executed mid-session. On the mid-session check of a book with positions, a target covered at today's prices is sold in that session, a stop is never lowered, and a partial sale before the target needs a named reason. In testing the desk realized a covered day-trade target in 8 of 8 sessions, against 2 of 8 before.
  • Luck or skill, read every night. Performance gains a "Luck or skill?" section: the book against a rules-only copy, where the money came from, the book against 10,000 random books from the same list, and the trading days an edge needs to show. Each names its floor, "4 of 20 trading days so far", and withholds its figure until then.
  • Made overall says what it can. The Overview "Made overall" line ends with one linked phrase, "skill not shown yet", "leaning skill", "no skill shown" or "behind beyond luck", which opens the Performance section. The phrase moves off "skill not shown yet" only after three nights in a row agree.

What you may notice

  • The mid-session handoff carries one line per held name, such as "NVDA stop 106, target 127, neither touched, no action". A held name the note says nothing about is treated as unmanaged.
  • Until a book has 20 trading days the section leads with "Too early to tell luck from skill after N trading days." and the split of where the money came from prints whole dollars that add up to the total. The random-books and rules-copy rows stay withheld with their meters.
  • A rules-only copy's own Performance page does not carry the section; it says the reading lives on the desk book it copies and offers to open it there.
  • The attribution report that was written once a week now also runs after every session at 18:30 CT to write the nightly reading; the weekly Desk versus Rules page itself is unchanged and still appears on the week's last session.
  • The Evidence page counts 35 ideas tested and 188 configurations tried, up from 25 and 146; every measured idea on it is marked dead, killed or parked.

Known gaps and what’s next

  • The exit plan applies to the scheduled mid-session check only. Morning planning, the close pass and event-driven sessions are unchanged, and a swing-book version tested this week was not adopted.
  • Targets and time-stop dates are not yet shown on the position card next to the stop; that is the follow-up from the swing test.
  • The random-books and rules-copy readings need 20 trading days together and a verdict needs 8 counted weeks; a book started at the beginning of September reaches the first floor in early October.
  • Screens that check their own numbers after hours and a check on hand-typed facts were held for the following release.

Release 40 f3e8be1